After the Spring Festival, the domestic boxes market continued to be under pressure, and the acceleration of paper companies' resumption of work and the slow recovery of terminal demand formed a significant mismatch. Under the dual pressure of high inventory and the release of new production capacity, the industry is still difficult to get rid of the weak pattern in the short term, and market prices continue to decline.
According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 27, the average daily price of domestic boxes has fallen to 3,591.5 yuan/ton, down 2.9% from the beginning of the month, while the industry's inventory days have climbed to 17.6 days, an increase of 17.3% from the end of February, and the inventory volume and price trend show a clear negative correlation.
Supply-side pressure continues to intensify. In the second half of 2024, the new production capacity will reach 3.1 million tons, coupled with the surge in imports of recycled domestic boxes under the zero tariff policy (imports from January to September increased by 10.81% year-on-year), and the domestic market is facing internal and external pressures. It is worth noting that the industry's operating rate continues to be sluggish, with an average annual operating rate of only 65% (including shutdown capacity). Even the maintenance of leading paper companies in March did not effectively adjust the supply side.
The demand-side support continues to weaken. The overdraft effect of "rushing to export" caused by the adjustment of US tariff policies has gradually emerged, and it is expected that export orders will shrink significantly in 2025. Although food and beverage packaging (accounting for 38% of total demand) continues to grow, the increase in emerging fields such as e-commerce packaging is still difficult to offset the shrinking demand in traditional fields. Although the "paper instead of plastic" policy promotes the demand for high-end products, it has limited effect on boosting the overall market.
The current market presents a typical "strong supply-weak demand" feature. The industry's dilemma stems from the superposition of three pressures: oversupply caused by the continuous release of production capacity, weak recovery of domestic demand and pressure on export prospects, and insufficient support from raw material costs.
Although structural opportunities exist in the fields of food packaging upgrades and environmental protection policy-driven areas, the substantial recovery of the industry still needs to wait for fundamental improvements in the supply and demand relationship. It is recommended that enterprises improve their market competitiveness through differentiated product layout, industrial chain integration and intelligent transformation to cope with the complex and changing market environment.
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