Recently, the "reciprocal tariff" policy introduced by the United States has stirred up ripples in global trade like a boulder thrown into a calm lake. As a paper industry practitioner, you may be wondering: How will this tariff storm affect the industry? Here are the key points:
1. Direct impact: China's paper exports are under pressure
The 34% tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese goods, combined with the previous tariff rate, may be close to 70%, which directly impacts China's paper exports to the United States. In 2024, China will export about 1.306 million tons of paper and paperboard to the United States (accounting for 8.05% of total exports), of which household paper accounts for the highest proportion (13.37%). Although China's export destinations are scattered (reaching 212 countries in 2025), the United States, as the second-largest market, may aggravate the problem of oversupply of some domestic paper types if demand shrinks.
2. Chain reaction: Global supply chain forced to adjust
The United States' "reciprocal tariff" is aimed not only at China but also at major trading partners such as the European Union, Vietnam, and India, which face tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%. This forces paper companies to accelerate the diversification of their supply chains.
3. Cost shifting: Who pays for high tariffs?
Tariff costs may be borne by importers in the short term (e.g., exporters are not responsible for tariffs under the FOB model), but in the long run, American consumers will face pressure from rising paper product prices. If Chinese exporters cannot transfer costs through bargaining, their profit margins will be squeezed, forcing the industry to upgrade or turn to the domestic demand market.
4. Long-term concerns: trade fragmentation and industry uncertainty
US policies violate the WTO's non-discrimination principle, triggering countermeasures from many countries and exacerbating the turbulence of the international trade environment. The global paper industry may face two major trends: one is the rise of regionalized supply chains (such as near-shore production), and the other is that trade barriers push up the overall cost of the industry and weaken the efficiency of globalization.
Golden Paper's response strategy
Diversified markets: Golden Paper has businesses in more than 100 countries around the world, and is actively exploring emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to reduce its dependence on a single region.
Optimize layout: Consider setting up factories in countries with lower tariffs or cooperating with local companies.
Technology upgrade: Increase the production capacity of high value-added paper (such as specialty paper) to hedge the risk of declining profits of low-priced products.
The tariff game has not yet ended, but the paper industry is at the crossroads of change. China Paper will flexibly adjust its strategy to gain a foothold in this storm.
Your message must be between 20-3,000 characters!
